The diplomatic deal in the Middle East was notable both for the breakthrough between Saudi Arabia and Iran and for the lack of American involvement.

An agreement between regional rivals on March 10 to reopen embassies soon after a seven-year hiatus was secretly mediated by China. This has raised questions about whether Riyadh has lost confidence in Washington as the protector of its security, and demonstrated the weakening of American influence in the region.

It also showed Beijing’s ability to mend a relationship torn in 2016 when Iranian protesters attacked the Saudi Arabian legations in Tehran following the execution in Riyadh of respected Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.

“The Chinese have now shown that they have the ambition and ability to play the role of mediator on the world stage,” he said. Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Government in Washington. “This comes at a time when the US is increasingly drawn into major conflicts and, as a result, has limited ability to play a diplomatic role.

“If this becomes the new normal that China is a peacemaker and the US is involved in conflicts, it will negatively impact America’s global influence and help China pose as a peace-loving nation and a stabilizing force in the world.”

Last week, Parsi co-wrote an op-ed in Foreign Affairs saying Washington was wary of China’s growing influence in the Middle East and had left a diplomatic vacuum that Beijing was happy to fill.

The article describes how Riyadh anticipated a US response to the September 2019 attack on Saudi oil facilities by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. When nothing came from then-President Donald Trump, Riyadh reconsidered its view that it could depend on Washington, which made direct diplomacy with Tehran more attractive.

China’s initiative, signed this month, was anticipated by America’s missteps in the region. President Joe Biden has been criticized for withdrawing US troops from Afghanistan in August 2021, and last summer he failed to get Riyadh to increase oil production to drive down US gas prices.

“With the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, this represents another setback for American diplomacy,” said Alan Kafruni, professor of international relations at Hamilton College in New York. Newsweek.

While the US still retains influence in Riyadh, Kafruni believes the deal could mean the resurrection of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which he said “it would be wise for the United States to support.” Trump in 2018 withdrew Washington from the 2015 agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear program.

All three sides were winners

China’s interests in the Middle East have deepened. Beijing has reportedly promised to invest $400 billion in 2021 to Iran in exchange for oil and fuel supplies. China is also Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner and one of the largest oil suppliers.

“This deal happened because all three parties benefited,” said Ammar A. Malik, senior fellow at the William & Mary Global Research Institute in Virginia.

“Saudi Arabia is trying to focus on its domestic economic reform agenda, abandoning regional conflicts amid record oil revenues,” he said. Newsweek. “Iran is struggling to cope with internal protests and is trying to put its economy on a growth trajectory.

“China has been seeking to get Iran out of the sanctions regime and this could be a step in that direction.”

Mohammed Elahia professor of international business at the University of Connecticut, Quinnipiac, said Saudi Arabia is ready to go beyond the US and “may even take steps that will cause consternation in the US.”

However, given US military equipment shipments, technology transfers and private investment in the kingdom, he said China “will take decades to build the kind of deep ties that the US has with Saudi Arabia.”

“It should not be discounted that no other country in the world even comes close to the US in terms of using coercive power and mobilizing resources from their global alliance in the shortest possible time,” Elahi said.

Antonio Fatasan economics professor at INSEAD business school in Singapore, said Saudi Arabia capitalized on its strong hand over the global energy crisis and saw a chance to “cause some discontent in the West without facing retribution.”

“They don’t like the strong role that the US has played in the region for years, and they prefer to see a weaker US, even if it means a stronger China,” he said. Newsweek.

regional impact

The China deal could be on par with the 2020 Abraham Accords, a series of normalization announcements originally made between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. It could also have a similar impact on the region, easing conflicts ranging from Syria to Yemen.

“Questions remain, such as how China can be the guarantor of the Saudi-Iranian agreement and how China will act if the agreement is not implemented,” said Bougra Süsler, visiting fellow at LSE IDEAS, a think tank at the London School of Economics. .

China could play a key role in ending the war in Ukraine

Chinese President Xi Jinping is visiting Moscow this week, and Beijing, officially neutral on President Vladimir Putin’s war, has increased trade with, and therefore influence over, Russia.

It is not clear what Xi knew about Putin’s plans when they met before his invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. But neither Moscow nor Kyiv rejected in full last month China’s 12-point position paper on how to end the war. Xi’s article, published by Russian media on Monday ahead of the visit, hinted that Beijing might end the fighting.

Sedomir Nestorovich of ESSEC Asia Pacific business school in Singapore believes that if the Chinese can resolve conflicts in the Persian Gulf, “they can do it in Ukraine.”

“China is accepted by both sides, which is not the case with the United States,” he said. Newsweek. “If China can mediate in Ukraine, it could also help de-escalate the Taiwan Strait crisis, so a Gulf deal could be just the beginning of China’s active contribution to peace.”

However, Nestorovich said China could also consider Saudi Arabia and Iran joining the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) bloc of emerging economies. This would provide Beijing’s energy needs, reduce US influence in the Persian Gulf, and force the US to do more in the region.

“The United States is a strong country, but perhaps not powerful enough to send its forces to the Persian Gulf, the Black Sea and the South China Sea at the same time,” Nestorovich said. “This is an idea that China might be interested in, especially in the context of China-Taiwan relations.”

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated sharply after the 1979 Iranian revolution, during which there were periods of intense rivalry and détente, and this latest deal may just be part of that cycle.

Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver, said the deal with China has not eliminated deep divisions between regional rivals.

“America’s influence in the region has waned, but I think we have to be very careful assuming the trend has deviated radically from American influence or Western influence in the region and China is now the dominant player,” he said. Newsweek.

He said the Republicans, who won back the White House in 2024, could change the calculus and see a return “to the period of conflict that we saw between 2016 and 2020, when Trump tried to exert pressure and displease Iran, and Saudi Arabia was very supportive of these efforts. . .”

Meanwhile, Riyadh is reportedly seeking security guarantees from the US in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel. This will entail Riyadh seeking US assistance in developing a civilian nuclear program and easing restrictions on arms sales. New York Times.

“The US administration understands that they will have to provide such guarantees as part of the deal,” Ephraim Halamis, This was told by a professor at New York University and a researcher at the Kroll Institute. Newsweek. “Because of the Iranian economic crisis, Iran needs foreign investment, Iran and more goods from places like Saudi Arabia. But at the same time, due to US sanctions, Saudi Arabia will not be interested in putting itself or its private companies at risk. all types of sanctions.

“I can imagine the US providing this kind of security umbrella and making sure that Saudi companies are subject to sanctions, while Saudi Arabia, in a pragmatic manner, signs and promotes all kinds of security agreements with Iran.”