Is the Ron DeSantis campaign over yet?

After the last few months, it’s hard not to wonder. The number of his polls plummeted. Potential donors are skeptical. pundits have interrogated should he run at all.

But as he finally announces his candidacy for the presidency, which is expected later today, it’s worth considering how he will return to the controversy. Despite all this, Ron DeSantis could still be the next Republican nominee.

It may seem hard to imagine, but in the presidential primaries, fortunes can change surprisingly quickly. The Iowa caucuses were still more than six months away, and he would have many opportunities to get his ship in order.

In the end, the factors that made Mr. DeSantis formidable earlier in the year may be greater than the stumbles and miscalculations that have shackled him lately. The damage is not yet irreparable.

Of course, the fact that he can return does not mean that he will return. His campaign decision to announce his bid on Twitter tonight is depriving a rare opportunity to stream live on multiple networks in favor of a Twitter Spaces feature that I don’t even know how to use as a frequent Twitter user. And even if his campaign ends up running differently than it has hitherto, it’s unclear whether even a perfectly orchestrated Republican campaign can defeat Donald J. Trump – at least if the former president survives his various legal troubles politically unscathed.

But if you’re tempted to write off Mr. DeSantis, think again. The history of primaries is littered with candidates who are written off only to get into an argument. Unknown candidates such as Herman Cain briefly become leaders. Early leaders like Joe Biden and John McCain are written off and then come back to win. Even Barack Obama spent six months battling and trailing the “inevitable” Hillary Clinton by double digits.

Perhaps someday we will say something similar about the candidacy of Mr. DeSantis. As with the candidates who eventually came back to victory, the strengths that made Mr. DeSantis so promising after the midterms continue today. He continues to enjoy unusually wide popularity in the Republican Party. His favor ratings remain high – stronger how Mr Trump — despite the fact that his stance against Mr Trump spoiled in a face-to-face survey. He continues to be defined by issues such as fighting the Awakened and coronavirus restrictions, which also have broad appeal to his entire party. If that was enough to make it a strong contender in January, there’s a reason it could happen again.

While Mr. DeSantis’ decline over the past few months is easily seen as a sign of deep weakness, the poll’s volatility can also be interpreted to mean a large constituency of voters is open to both candidates. They may be leaning one way or the other, depending on how the political winds blow.

Mr. DeSantis’ strategy this year may also have increased the likelihood of larger swings. As I wrote last week, there are two theories for defeating the former president – Trumpism without Trump, and a resurgent conservative alternative to Trump. Of these two proto-DeSantis campaigns, it is easier to interpret as a non-Trump version of Trumpism. If his campaign has done anything, it has narrowed any differences with Mr. Trump—even to the point of error. Mr. DeSantis did not actually make any explicit or implicit charges against the former president. Perhaps worse, he did not strike back after being attacked.

This combination of options helped create an unusually rapid decline in support for Mr. DeSantis. After all, the only thing that hypothetical Trumpism without a Trump coalition has in common is opposing Mr. Trump and the prospect of defeating him. If you don’t attack him another you’re losing to him, which means you don’t say or do the only two things that can rally your supporters.

The evaporating backbone for Mr. DeSantis has manifested itself differently on two different fronts. Right-wing conservative voters, open to anyone but Trump, nevertheless returned to the side of the former president. What conservative wants Trumpism without power? Closer to the center, many relatively moderate and neoconservative establishment Republicans who covet a candidacy that opposes Trumpism, not just the man himself, have denied Mr. DeSantis critical support and flirted with other options, from Chris Christie to Chris. sununu

But if DeSantis’ campaign can revive the case for his Trumpism without Trump’s nomination, he could quickly win back many of the voters who supported him a few months ago. In fact, it’s even possible that the current media narrative and low expectations are setting the stage for a DeSantis resurgence.

Imagine what it would be like if he launched a successful and energetic attack on Trump after all these months on the defensive. What might otherwise have been routine sparring would take on much greater significance, sparking months of pent-up unrest among his supporters. What if he’s announcing his candidacy on Twitter in part to poke fun at Truth Social? As silly as it sounds, a successful crackdown on Trump could breathe life into his candidacy, and the media loves comeback stories.

One important factor keeping Mr. DeSantis’ path open is that so far, none of the potential moderate alternatives to him have taken hold in the race. If they did, it would deprive him of moderate and neo-conservative voters who supported the likes of John Kasich and Marco Rubio in the last primaries. In fact, he would have become a different Ted Cruz.

But for now, Mr. DeSantis is the only real candidate in town who is not a candidate for Trump. As long as this is true, he will stand a good chance of recovering among voters who would prefer someone other than Trump if there is a market for someone other than Trump.

After all, whether there is sufficient demand for an alternative to Trump may be a bigger question than whether Mr. DeSantis can revive his campaign. Since Mr. Trump already has over 50% of the vote in the polls, some interruptions may be needed to actually defeat Mr. Trump, such as the possibility that his legal problems are worse than we might think. It also takes a DeSantis victory in Iowa to break Trump’s grip on an important segment of the party, much like the midterm elections could temporarily split Trump’s base last winter.

But even if Mr. Trump is the clear favorite, it’s easy to see how Mr. DeSantis can at least make this race competitive again. When he can focus on his own issues, he has a distinct political brand rarely seen in the divided Republican Party. With such low expectations, the groundwork for a recovery may even be laid. It happened before.