Wildfire season in most parts of the western United States could be delayed this summer as heavy snow covers many mountain ranges, national forecasters said. However, the risk of damage from wildfires continues to rise as the climate warms, and this is one of the factors that makes it difficult to predict how the season will play out.

Forecasters and fire ecology experts say changes in fire behavior make it difficult to predict conditions in late summer and early fall. The fire season is getting longer. Higher temperatures deplete the fuel from their moisture faster. And more people are living close to wildlife — and potentially at risk.

Jim Wallmann, meteorologist at the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho, said “the chances of getting something big early in the year are greatly reduced.”

NIFC is forecasting above-normal fire activity in parts of the Pacific Northwest, including eastern Oregon and central Washington, in July and August. Elsewhere in the West, forecasters are predicting normal or below-average fire activity these months.

“With these really wet winters, you think the fire season is going to be quieter, and they tend to start slower,” Wollmann said. “After all, your fuel still dries out faster than before.”

Even if the season starts slowly, the most important thing will be the finish.

Many factors determine the dynamics of the fire season. While it may seem like a wet winter will play a dramatic role, experts say its impact can easily be overestimated.

“There is no strong correlation between winter precipitation and next season’s fire forecast,” said Craig Clements, director of the Interdisciplinary Wildfire Research Center at San Jose State University.

Fuel moisture — how wet sticks, logs, and grass lie on the landscape — is the best indicator of wildfire risk.

This year, with many areas of California and the Great Basin receiving twice as much snow as usual, researchers expect the melting snowpack to prevent the fuel from drying out quickly. The snow cover will also reduce access to mountain wilderness for humans, the most common source of wildfires in the US. Both of these factors should delay the fire season.

“What happens after that? It all depends on how quickly the temperature rises in the summer, how long it stays hot, and how hot it gets,” said Erica Fleischman, professor at Oregon State University and director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute. “Vegetation can still dry out very quickly.”

In some areas, wet winters can increase the intensity of wildfires. For some plants, including non-native grasses such as cheatgrass, abnormal amounts of winter moisture can encourage additional growth, creating more fuel and fire potential in late summer.

“Chitgrass responds well to winter rainfall,” Fleishman said. “This could lead to a greater likelihood of wildfires and larger wildfires.”

While most Western states have had rainy years, parts of the Pacific Northwest have not. Nearly half of Oregon is suffering from drought, according to the US Drought Monitor.

“Most of the Pacific Northwest had high snow cover but no total rainfall,” Fleischman said. “The deep snow cover reflected low temperatures rather than high rainfall.”

Seasonal forecasts suggest high temperatures and fire weather in central Washington and eastern Oregon.

“We expect temperatures across the state to be slightly above average between June and August and slightly drier than usual,” said Von Cork, a fuel analyst with the Washington Department of Natural Resources. “It looks like June will be relatively mild. And then when our grass in the Columbia River Basin starts to dry out, we’ll see some big grassland fires, and once they start hitting the foothills, timber will be available.”

An unseasonable heat wave this month triggered an early thaw and allowed grasses to start growing early.

“That’s what we’re looking at,” Wollmann said.

While a wet winter may slow wildfires in early summer, climate change is shifting baseline wildfire levels in the West.

A Climate Central analysis released on Wednesday found a sharp increase in the number of fire days in the western states.

The analysis, which measured temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, found that parts of Southern California and New Mexico are seeing fires two months more each year than they did a century ago. Analysis shows that parts of California, Oregon and Washington are twice as likely to experience wildfire weather.

“If there is a fire, it will most likely be extreme,” said Caitlin Trudeau, a researcher at Climate Central. “This is an increase in the chances that this fire will grow into a much larger beast than if it weren’t so hot, dry and windy.”

The area affected by wildfires doubled from 1984 to 2015, according to the study. cited in the National Climate Assessmenthowever, climate change plays a large role in fuel drying.

Other factors, such as an increase in the number of people in the wilderness and fuel accumulation from past fire suppression, also contribute to the increase in acres burned.

According to Brian Harvey, a forest scientist and assistant professor at the University of Washington, what is considered normal, or considered a year of quiet fire safety in the US, is being re-examined.

The federal fire departments began tracking the number of acres burned nationwide in 1983. Harvey noted that over 6 million acres were burned in just one fire season from 1983 to 2000.

“We have seen 13 years since 2000 when we saw 6 million acres burned,” he said. “It’s a qualitatively different way of thinking about what a normal fire year is like compared to decades ago.”

But historical records contain evidence of large wildfires and large seasons of smoke. Ecosystems benefit from forest fires. They are adapted to it.

“It’s easy for us to understand that any fire will be bad,” Harvey said. “From an environmental point of view, fire is a critical factor in the sustainability of our ecosystems.”

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